The politics of Brexit

The UK’s expected decision to U-turn on plans to undermine the Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol does little to mitigate the Brexit impact in Ireland, writes David Whelan.

For those closely following the twists and turns of the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU on the future trading relationship, the UK’s decision to roll back on its plans to break international law, through its Internal Markets Bill, will come as no surprise.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson caught many in the EU by surprise in September when he revealed the Bill which effectively gave British ministers discretion over implementation of parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol.

The clear intent to break international law sparked widespread anger, not just on the EU side, with Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney TD instantly deploying Ireland’s ambassador in London to meet with Downing Street, but also within Prime Minister Johnson’s own party. Talk of rebellion spread throughout Westminster with former Prime Minister Theresa May re-emerging to led warnings that any such move would damage Britain’s standing in the world.

However, those who had analysed the UK’s approach to the negotiations to date, particularly under Johnson’s premiership, remained sceptical of the UK’s commitment to see such a bold move through.

For the cynics, the Internal Markets Bill represented little more than a threat to the EU, a bid to soften up their rigid approach to the negotiations, as proved to be the case on 8 December.

Proximity to a deal was always viewed as the perfect cover for the UK to neuter the Internal Market Bill, offered as an act of concession to the EU while at the same time saving face at home.

And so, in the build up to Johnson’s face to face meeting with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the UK Prime Minister announced the scrapping of all “lawbreaking” clauses from the legislation, in a move to improve relations.

European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič and UK Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove announced that the EU UK Joint Committee, established to implement the Withdrawal Agreement, had come to an agreement which would see the UK withdraw all clauses in the Internal Market Bill, which would have breached the Northern Ireland Protocol and a pledge to not introduce any similar provisions in the UK’s Taxation Bill.

Solutions were found to questions around food imports from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, EU state aid rules, the supply of medicine and the EU’s presence in the North. The Joint Committee also reached agreement on whether goods originating in Great Britain would be at risk of crossing the border to the south and potentially attracting a tariff.

The Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland was drawn up to ensure the avoidance of a hard border in Ireland and protect the integrity of the single market, regardless of the outcome of the future relationship negotiations.

It allows the North to remain legally part of the UK customs territory but be subject to certain provisions of EU law. Under the Protocol, goods from Northern Ireland will have free and open access to the EU single market, however, necessary checks and controls will take place on goods entering Northern Ireland from Britain and other third countries.

In September 2020, the Government outlined “substantial challenges” for supply chains and trade flows which would require checks and controls in both directions on EU-UK trade, with or without a deal, in its Brexit Readiness Action Plan.

“Proximity to a deal was always viewed as the perfect cover for the UK to neuter the Internal Market Bill, offered as an act of concession to the EU while at the same time saving face at home.”

Any imports or exports between Ireland and Great Britain, be they by a company or an individual, will require the completion of a customs declaration. Trade in WTO terms would mean an addition of tariffs and quotas in trade in both directions, with particular impact on the agri-food sector.