Sinn Féin’s government hopes slipping

Sinn Féin’s dreams of leading government in the State are slipping, with plummeting polling, poor performances in the European and local elections, and a series of scandals having led to a loss of momentum on the precipice of the general election campaign. Having attended the Sinn Féin ard fheis in Athlone, Ciarán Galway and Joshua Murray write about the challenges facing the party.

While just one year ago, many Sinn Féin members had no doubt that it was their destiny to lead Government in the Republic for the first time, a series of poor decisions, coupled with scandal and loss of momentum, means that there is now added pressure on Mary Lou McDonald TD to defy the odds and lead Sinn Féin into government for the first time.

Sinn Féin in September 2023 and Sinn Féin in September 2024 are two different propositions. The November 2023 ard fheis was distinct from September 2024, however, in that the assembled faithful then believed that the party was on the cusp of winning a general election and entering government, with party president Mary Lou McDonald enjoying significant popularity.

In the intervening months, there have been five major developments for Sinn Féin.

Firstly, the party underperformed in local and European elections relative to its polling over the previous three years since the February 2020 general election.

Secondly, the party – in attempting to plough a steady furrow into the general election campaign – has jammed a stick in its own spokes. Firstly, it alienated much of its republican base with an initially half-hearted response to the Israel onslaught in Gaza – refusing to call for expulsion of the Israeli ambassador and refusing to boycott the St Patrick’s Day programme at the White House – before miscalculating its position on immigration. Chiefly, immigration discourse has wrong-footed the traditionally left populist party.

Thirdly, the relative absence of Mary Lou McDonald amid several personal crises over the last 12 months, had left a yawning personality vacuum at the very top of Irish politics; one in which Taoiseach Simon Harris is now firmly ensconced.

Fourthly, against many predictions, the northern Assembly and Executive returned with a Sinn Féin First Minister at the helm, and the party cemented its seemingly unassailable position as the largest party in the North with its best ever performance in the Westminster elections, converting the marginal to the assured and challenging even for seats in DUP heartlands.

Fifth, the series of scandals which have emerged about party members in recent months, including the resignation of Brian Stanley TD, the resignation of former Senator Niall Ó Donnghaile, and the Michael McMonagle incident.

Internally, the momentum of the Sinn Féin pendulum has swung back to Belfast and away from Dublin. This was reflected in the delegate attendance at the 2024 ard fheis. Several delegates, including an MLA, a councillor, and a party activist commented privately on greatly reduced numbers this year. “A bit flat,” remarked more than one attendee.

It all belies the fact that this should be the most significant opportunity in the party’s history, at least since 1981; being the final ard fheis ahead of a general election campaign in which the party seeks to offer a viable alternative to the Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil duopoly.

Last year, eolas Magazine noted: “Currently, the fanfare which surrounds McDonald is unparalleled in any other party, with enthusiastic Sinn Féin members of all ages swarming the leader for photographs in a manner which was not analogous to other party gatherings. Sinn Féin members believe that they have their dream ticket to government on both sides of the border of this island, and ultimately the path to Irish unification.”

In a relatively short time, the party’s fortunes appear greatly diminished. Similarly, McDonald’s public persona has – understandably – dimmed.

Meanwhile, there is a perception – not entirely unmerited – that many media outlets are engaged in a concerted campaign to protect the political status quo.

Having been elected to represent the Cork South-West ward on Cork City Council in June 2024 – and having subsequently been selected to contest the Cork North Central constituency in the general election alongside Thomas Gould TD – Joe Lynch told the ard fheis that media outlets “seem incapable of not falling for his [Taoiseach Simon Harris TD] every word” and suggested that his record be scrutinised rather than his soundbites amplified.

‘Lessons learnt’

When an Ard Comhairle member suggested to eolas Magazine that “lessons have been learnt” since June 2024, it was hard to avoid drawing parallels with similar sentiments expressed following the equally poor performance in the local and European elections in May 2019. Regardless, the senior member contends that the coming general election remains “a three-horse race”.

Dissent

In a rare moment of dissent during the ‘making housing affordable’ session, former MP for Mid Ulster, Francie Molloy, exceeded his speaking time in criticising Sinn Féin councillors for voting against a specific rural housing application in his constituency, and accusing the party leadership of failing to reply to him when he has written to them on the matter.

Internationalism

Amid Israeli bombing of Gaza and Lebanon, Sinn Féin’s internationalism was on full display throughout the ard fheis. Paul Mashatile, the Deputy President of the African National Congress (ANC) and of the Republic of South Africa, Ambassador of the State of Palestine to Ireland, Jilan Wahba Abdalmajid, and the Ambassador of Cuba to Ireland, Bernardo Guanche Hernández, were in prominent attendance.

However, Sinn Féin Spokesperson on Foreign Affairs and Defence, Matt Carthy TD, failed to ignite the explosive energy of the previous ard fheis where he had led chants: “In our thousands, in our millions, we are all Palestinians.”

‘She can turn this around’

Speaking with another senior member of the party apparatus, there was agreement that Sinn Féin must manoeuvre national discourse back to housing policy. Does Sinn Féin’s general election success hinge on this? “Pretty much, yeah,” they responded.

Party activists from Belfast spoke with this publication on the twinning of constituencies north and south to pool resources and manpower. The local organisational structures in some constituencies in the 26 counties, they suggested, are comparatively weaker than their counterparts in the North, where many of its key supporters have active and prominent roles – such as youth workers, social workers, and community volunteers – in the fabric of their constituencies.

Fringe events were limited to two simultaneous events in adjoining lecture theatres on the Technological University of the Shannon’s Athlone campus. The first – a book launch and discussion in memory of party stalwart, Rita O’Hare – was a standing room only affair. The second – a niche but practical session – focused on the role of the 21st century councillor in Irish local government and was markedly less well attended.

As ever, the evergreen Sinn Féin ‘grandfather’ figure, Gerry Adams, was a huge draw. “It’s great to see,” commented one party member from County Laois as she observed fellow attendees lining the Sinn Féin shop for a book signing and photo session with the veteran republican. It took over an hour for Adams to whittle down this adoring queue.

The Rita O’Hare book launch offered an insightful look into the mood in republican circles. Chaired by Gerry Adams, the panel comprised Danny Morrison, Brendan Brownlee – Rita O’Hare’s widower – and Dawn Doyle. Adams opened proceedings onto the floor, where the topic of discussion between the party faithful ranged from fond memories of O’Hare’s decades of activism, to perspectives on where Sinn Féin is now.

Notably, there was an apparent consensus among the party’s grassroots that its republicanism is being downplayed in order to gain favour with southern media.

“None of us joined Sinn Féin all those years ago because we wanted to fix a health service… We joined it to unite our country,” said one party member.

With Gerry Adams listening and nodding intently at the front of the room, other members spoke of their dissatisfaction with the party’s opposition to Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, with the perceived lack of emphasis placed on Irish unity and republican principles, such as the lack of recognition of British sovereignty in the North, among the points raised.

This was a lively, although far from heated, debate within the republican inner circle, and exposed a fundamental flaw in Sinn Féin’s attempt to path a way into government. The overwhelming majority of its members see themselves as revolutionaries whose aim is to essentially reestablish the 1916 Republic. In contrast, the path that the party is currently taking is focused on being perceived by polite society as a legitimate and respectable party, at a significant enough distance from its historical association with the Provisional IRA to not merit criticism by the Dublin media, while close enough to its past to ensure that its core support base and membership – i.e. veteran republicans – can stay the course and continue with the core objective of making Mary Lou McDonald the Taoiseach.

McDonald’s popularity as party leader has always seemed somewhat fraught. An initial outsider to republicanism, she was cultivated by Gerry Adams as his successor, with the goal of making her the first Sinn Féin Taoiseach over a period of 15 years prior to her becoming leader.

Having initially struggled to endear herself to the Sinn Féin base following poor election results in the 2019 European and local elections, the party’s success in the last general election – largely attributable to her personal popularity at the time – meant she was safe in her position as party president and had the Sinn Féin base rallying around the core objective of republicans: making her the Taoiseach and leading government north and south.

But, following extremely disappointing results in the 2024 local elections, as well as somewhat less disappointing results in the European elections, the enthusiasm for McDonald has somewhat faded. This is a challenge given that the core of the Sinn Féin project is for her to be a vote-winner and propel the party into government.

Sinn Féin formally re-elects its Ard Comhairle at every ard fheis. When McDonald was formally re-elected as party president, there was a comparably muted reaction from the crowd compared to the formal re-election of party vice-president Michelle O’Neill MLA, who has led the party to unrivalled success in the six counties, where it now leads in local government, Stormont, and among the North’s cohort of Westminster MPs.

As this was happening, Sinn Féin leadership was in the process of removing two press officers who had provided professional references to former Sinn Féin press officer and convicted child sex offender Michael McMonagle, something which Mary Lou McDonald and Michelle O’Neill have said took place without the party’s approval.

One veteran MLA agreed that the position of the party in the south is below what was expected even one-year prior to the time this ard fheis was held, but was adamant that there is still a chance that the party can turn the tide.

“We were in a much worse position before the last [general] election and did better than we ever thought we could at the time,” the MLA told eolas Magazine, adding their full belief that “She [Mary Lou McDonald] can turn this around”.

‘We are not giving up’

Taking the stage at 6.30pm, McDonald’s speech was essentially a rallying cry for the general election, largely touching on policy matters in the south such as housing, health, renewable energy, and an attempt to win over voters enamoured by Simon Harris’ ‘law and order’ mantra.

McDonald said: “As a proud Dubliner, I am sick of the Government line that our city is safe having abandoned it to open drug dealing, criminal gangs, and anti-social behaviour.”

Earlier that day, Rose Conway-Walsh TD had criticised the longstanding inclusion of policy pertaining to the North under the auspices of the Department of Foreign Affairs portfolio as “an insult to citizens in the North”.

Returning to this theme, in her speech, the Sinn Féin president called for the establishment of a ‘minister for reunification’ within the Department of the Taoiseach, thereby removing the North from the remit of the Department of Foreign Affairs.

McDonald has recently provided greater insight to the public about her personal life, having experienced the death of her father, her own personal health challenges, and serious illness of her husband.

She thanked supporters for their solidarity: “In life, you have your ups and your downs, times when you need someone to put an arm around you. Over the last year, I have felt that kindness in my own life.”

McDonald went on to strike a defiant tone: “I’m an optimist, an Irish republican, a mother who wants the best for her children, and for yours.

“When I need inspiration, I remember who raised me, who I am. One of four raised by my mother on her own, who worked to pay rent and bills, to make sure we had every chance in life.

“I was raised to never give up, to stand by the things I know to be right. I am more determined, Sinn Féin is more determined than ever to build a better, fairer, united Ireland for everyone. We are not giving up.”

It was still daylight when members filtered into the crisp autumnal Athlone air. One party veteran from County Wexford remarked of the party leader: “She never misses. She’s the right leader, I tell you.”

However, the impression from this ard fheis is that McDonald’s continuing as Sinn Féin leader is entirely dependent on the results of the next general election.

Gerry Adams, back in 2014, said that the Sinn Féin strategy was for “equality” to be the “trojan horse of the entire republican strategy”, with the objective of winning power north and south and gaining respectability among the Irish establishment.

While this project has succeeded thus far in the North, where Michelle O’Neill leads the Executive and stands as the most popular political leader on the island of Ireland, according to most polling, the task of turning the tide and winning the next general election in the South remains a tall order.

If Sinn Féin falls short in the election, it is entirely plausible that there will be a new party leader, marking, perhaps not the end, but a significant setback in a decades-long project choreographed by past republican leaders of assuming control of the State, leading the Executive in the North, and using this to unite the country.