Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are set to continue leading the country, following an election campaign which demonstrated the strengths of two of Ireland’s political leaders, while showcasing the weaknesses of one, write Ciarán Galway and Joshua Murray.
Prior to the launch of this campaign, there was a widely held consensus, backed by opinion polling, that the election would result in Simon Harris remaining Taoiseach, with broadly stable results for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, a collapse of the Sinn Féin vote, and a rise in support for independents.
What instead happened was a battle of aura, whereby Fianna Fáil ran a strong and subtle campaign against Fine Gael in which Micheál Martin clearly presented himself as the safer, more statesmanlike option – in contrast to Simon Harris – to lead the nation.
The Fianna Fáil leader deftly leveraged his personal popularity to differentiate Fianna Fáil from Fine Gael in spite of broadly similar policy platforms and similar levels of public support.
Simon Harris, on the other hand, had a tough time on the campaign trail, and became unstuck amid several PR blunders which curtailed his ambitions to return to the office of the Taoiseach.
For Sinn Féin, in the wake of disastrous local and European election results in the early part of 2024 – emulation of which would have resulted in Sinn Féin’s relegation to minor party status – this was a strong if unspectacular result. In spite of its performance in the previous 14 months, the party maintained its bases in most constituencies, and even made some expansions in previously barren parts of the country.
While this was a far cry from realising the party’s high polling numbers in the three years after the 2020 election, it has lived to fight another day and remains one of the three major parties through shrewd candidate selection and vote management.
Elsewhere, there are wounds to lick for the Green Party, signs of life for Labour, and continued hope for the Social Democrats.
With government formation talks ongoing at the time of print, it seems almost certain that Micheál Martin is to become Taoiseach, with Simon Harris to become Tánaiste (and possibly Taoiseach again in two to three years). Less certain is who will prop the parties up, with talks ongoing with right-leaning independents, as well as the prospect of the Labour Party re-entering government after an eight-year absence.
Labour is widely held to be the preferable partner, however its leader, Ivana Bacik TD, has reportedly told a meeting of the party’s central council that she has no intention of forming coalition with the erstwhile ‘big two’.
Fianna Fáil makes its return
While 2024 marked Fianna Fáil’s second worst general election popular vote margin in its history, a tactful campaign spearheaded by Micheál Martin – and assisted by some good fortune – has led Fianna Fáil to reclaim its place as the most popular party in the State. In fact, 2024 was the party’s first general election popular vote win since 2007 and will almost certainly lead Micheál Martin back into the Taoiseach’s office after two years as Tánaiste.
RTÉ’s exit poll, published moments after polls closed on the night of 29 November, showed that 65 per cent of the population feel “better off” than when the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-Green Party coalition was formed in June 2020, which was a strong omen for the re-election of two of the three governing parties.
However, prior to the campaign, there was a general understanding that Micheál Martin had been in politics for too long to capture voters’ imaginations, and that the “new energy” surrounding Fine Gael leader Simon Harris would propel him back to the Taoiseach’s office in spite of the minimal policy differences.
Overall, this was a low-energy general election campaign, meaning that what the competition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil came down to was – similarly to elections in the USA – a battle of ‘vibes’, which Martin undoubtedly won.
It is important to avoid underestimating this intangible barometer of voter mood, with the World Economic Forum suggesting that “‘vibes’ mean more to voters than GDP”.
In this battle, Martin was able to present himself as a safe pair of hands, a working-class hero, and a compassionate man driven by “family values”. In this sphere, Martin contains multitudes.
One such example was a viral social media campaign video, My dad Micheál Martin, featuring Martin’s son, Micheál Aodh Martin reminiscing about his childhood and the personal side of the Fianna Fáil leader.
Voter turnout in 2024 decreased by three percentage points when compared with 2020. At 59.7 per cent it was the lowest general election turnout in over a century.
In this context, the above was a social media masterstroke, the like of which has never been delivered by Fianna Fáil’s traditionally stuffy approach to media management, and it helped Micheál Martin cut through a general election campaign in which the public is not enthused about the choice at hand.
Another benefit for Martin came in the unlikely form of RTÉ’s head-to-head debates, where – between the three main party leaders – he was the consecutive winner and polled significantly higher than his Fine Gael counterpart.
While head-to-head debates typically have a minimal effect on election outcomes, the nuance on which the two government parties had to campaign meant that small factors like this were what tipped the scales and positioned Fianna Fáil higher on people’s preference lists than Fine Gael.
In addition to a strong campaign, Martin was aided by some good fortune in a string of PR gaffes by the Fine Gael leader, as well as the fact that more than half (18) of Fine Gael’s incumbent TDs were retiring from public life, meaning that in many instances, where Fine Gael had a political newcomer standing in a constituency, Fianna Fáil was able to run a well-known and experienced candidate (such as Pat ‘the Cope’ Gallagher in Donegal, who won a second seat for Fianna Fáil ahead of the inexperienced Fine Gael candidate) who would be more likely to receive a vote than their unknown counterpart.
All-in-all, for Martin, the man who was tasked with saving the very existence of Fianna Fáil when he took over the leadership from Brian Cowen in 2011, it amounts to a successful campaign, leading the party back to government on two occasions and preserving its place in Irish politics – albeit on a vastly reduced scale relative to its historical status.
In this campaign, Martin – who has been in the Dáil since 1989 and is now the third longest-serving TD – utilised every ounce of his political strengths and his experience and was successful as he came across as a man who understands the system.
Now, there is no doubting Micheál Martin’s effectiveness as Ireland’s foremost political operator. This was the difference between Martin and Simon Harris.
Sinn Féin: Here to stay as a major party
2024 has been a busy year for Sinn Féin. In the North, it secured the largest number of Westminster MPs out of any of the parties and has been led back into the Executive by Michelle O’Neill, who became the first nationalist leader of the North since it was Gerrymandered in 1921.
In the Republic, however, 2024 began disastrously for the party, with Sinn Féin polling less than 12 per cent of the popular vote in the local elections, and only winning two seats in the European Parliament. At the Sinn Féin ard fheis in Athlone in November 2024, however, eolas Magazine heard from optimistic senior party members who believed that the party’s success in the 2020 general election could be matched.
In spite of a significant 5.5 percentage point decrease in the popular vote (shedding 116,968 first preference votes) relative to 2020, these projections were proven correct.
Sinn Féin will not be leading government, and it will likely not achieve its goal of a united Ireland by 2030, but Mary Lou McDonald’s party has shown its resilience in a year where it has faced pressure over its stance on immigration, a string of scandals regarding members accused of sexual misconduct, and the relative – and understandable – absence of its party leader, which saw its poll numbers plummet over consecutive months.
While McDonald’s remarks about Sinn Féin receiving a “mandate for change” have been derided by political commentators, what should not be underestimated is that Sinn Féin had held seats in all parts of the country, and has consolidated once unlikely parts of the country, like Waterford, as republican strongholds.
In Waterford, David Cullinane’s once again topped the poll, this time bringing in a running mate. A testament to the ability of a high-profile media performer to catalyse the local structures, and a strong second candidate in Conor McGuinness, a trade unionist from Dungarvan.
Ultimately, rather than this election propelling the party into government, it has been a general election in which Sinn Féin has consolidated its team of TDs, lost a small number of faces, and added some new ones.
Arguably, better understanding of public sentiment has served the party well in its candidate selection compared to 2020 where the surprise success saw several paper candidates elected (and later jettisoned).
Unlike 2020, housing policy failed to capture the imagination of voters in as significant a way as it had, and to tap into the prevailing socioeconomic mood of the broad electorate as outlined in the aforementioned RTÉ exit poll.
While rumours have swirled throughout the last year about pressure on McDonald’s leadership, what this campaign showed was her strengths as a party leader, with her debate performances and strong ability to interact with members of the general public helping Sinn Féin push back a polling gap and push Fine Gael into third place.
In essence, McDonald’s return to form for the four weeks of the campaign recaptured the public’s attention and she has once again shown herself to be a major asset to her party, particularly in public appearances. The party can only lament that this was not always possible over the previous 12 months.
In the wings, meanwhile, Pearse Doherty TD secured the single largest popular vote of any candidate in the State, capturing 18,596 first preferences in the Donegal constituency.
While these election results are a metaphorical torpedo to Sinn Féin’s short- to-medium term ambitions, following its initial four years leading the Dáil opposition, it has survived a challenging year in 2024 and is here to stay as a major force in Irish politics – north and south.
Simultaneously, Sinn Féin can also take heart in the knowledge that it has forced the two parties which served to dominate representative politics in the State for over a century into a consecutive decline in popularity – to a combined 42.7 per cent of the popular vote (down from 43.1 per cent in 2020) – pinning them together as one single target of critique.
Simon Harris’ PR disasters
For Fine Gael, this was a difficult campaign, but one which has navigated a generational transition, with 20 of Fine Gael’s 38 TDs entering Dáil Éireann for the first time. Hopes had been high amid Simon Harris’ “new energy”, but the collapse of a piece of ‘new energy’ signage at the launch of its election campaign foreshadowed the multitude of PR disasters which would pepper this campaign.
Undoubtedly, the first disaster occurred during the official launch of then-Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment Peter Burke TD’s election campaign. Ryanair Chief Executive, Michael O’Leary, told assembled Fine Gael members, including election candidates: “The Dáil is full of teachers… I wouldn’t generally employ a lot of teachers to go out and get things done.”
These remarks were perceived as a slight against public servants, and afforded Micheál Martin – himself a former teacher – the opportunity to revert to old-school Fianna Fáil election tactics, stating: “I come from a tradition which always exalted the teacher,” insinuating that Fianna Fáil is more ‘of the people’ than Fine Gael.
Following this, Harris was confronted on the campaign trail by a disability worker, Charlotte Fallon. With media cameras rolling, Fallon told the Taoiseach: “We’ve fought for our money … but we are ignored”. When Harris replied: “No you weren’t”, the woman responded: “Yes we were. The disability sector is a joke. You’ve done nothing for us. Our people are suffering”.
Harris eventually shook Fallon’s hand and walked away as she said: “Keep shaking people’s hands and walk away. You’re not a good man.”
While confrontations with members of the general public are par for the course on the campaign trail, the aftermath of this ensued and it became a widely reported news story for Harris. This is because Harris’ team is alleged to have contacted RTÉ about how the broadcaster planned to handle its coverage of the video.
It is further understood that an effort was made to suggest that “context” about what the government has done for disability needs to be included if RTÉ was going to run a clip of Fallon saying Section 39 workers were “ignored”. Harris subsequently claimed that he had “no knowledge” that a member of his team contacted RTÉ, and later apologised to Fallon.
These PR disasters, along with two subpar – or ‘safe’ – debate performances where he was outmanoeuvred by both his Fianna Fáil rival and Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, meant that it was an extremely challenging campaign for Fine Gael and its leader, and arguably was one of the main difference-makers between Fianna Fáil being able to outperform Fine Gael by 10 seats.
Nevertheless, although this is Fine Gael’s worst vote share in a general election since 1948, Harris will be satisfied to have come through a bruising campaign with his party intact, and with a vast array of new TDs who will be firmly under his command and eager to impress their party leader with the party almost certain to form part of the next government.
That being said, if Fianna Fáil sidesteps Harris’ insistence that his party is treated with “parity of esteem” and avoids a rotating taoiseach scenario, the Fine Gael leader could yet, as suggested in this publication earlier in 2024, hold the record for the shortest cumulative time served as Taoiseach, “at least for the foreseeable future”.
Wider trends
While the global anti-incumbency trend of 2024 elections did not manifest for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the Green Party still managed to bear the brunt of public discontent, with the party being reduced from 12 seats to just a single TD – its new leader, Roderic O’Gorman. It is undeniable that the environment and climate orientated wing of the party led a political kamikaze mission into the triparty coalition government, at the expense of the party’s socially liberal wing.
However, though a swing to populist independents had been mooted in place of the Green Party, in reality, there was a realignment of the ‘soft left’ which resulted in a strong performance for the Social Democrats, and signs of revival for the Labour Party, with both parties winning 11 seats respectively.
Despite a considerable amount of noise about immigration becoming a top issue for voters, the RTÉ exit poll showed that immigration was the ‘most important factor’ for only 6 per cent of voters, which explains yet another rejection of the far-right by the Irish electorate. In fact, 100% Redress, a single-issue party which stood one candidate in Donegal – Charles Ward, who won election with 9 per cent of first-preference votes in Donegal – won more votes than all the National Party’s candidates combined.
Government formation
With the Greens essentially evaporated, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are currently evaluating the various political forces offering them their services to form the 35th government of Ireland, with the combined forces of the two parties just two seats short of a majority (88).
There are two likely paths: the first of which comes in the form of right leaning independents, such as Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran, Verona Murphy, and the Healy-Rae brothers.
The Regional Independents Group has reportedly asked for one senior ministerial role, two junior ministers, and the role of Ceann Comhairle, with Verona Murphy set to receive a nomination to be Ceann Comhairle in the next Dáil.
The second, and seemingly less favoured option from Martin and Harris’ perspectives, is bringing the Labour Party in from the cold after eight years of ignominy on the opposition benches.
Another important factor for negotiations is that of the rotating Taoiseach. A rotating Taoiseach between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil was negotiated in light of the 2020 election results, when Fianna Fáil won 38 seats and Fine Gael won 35. However, in this election, Fianna Fáil (on 48 seats) has won 10 seats more than Fine Gael (38), meaning that speculation has built that Fianna Fáil will only coalesce with Fine Gael if it becomes a junior partner.
However, on 9 December 2024, the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil press offices released virtually identical statements: “The Taoiseach and Tánaiste agreed the need for a stable government, underpinned by mutual respect and clear policy direction for the next five years so that it can deliver for the Irish people in face of great challenges.”
The statement is ambiguous enough to be interpreted that Simon Harris will indeed get another turn as Taoiseach in the next few years, although it is unlikely that this will be an even split, as it was the case in the previous government.
