Roadmap to a low-carbon economy

Investments in energy efficiency and Europe’s power network infrastructure would create a decarbonised power sector just as reliable as the current one, according to Dries Acke of the European Climate Foundation. Meadhbh Monahan reports.

Achieving an 80 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels by 2050 is the aim of an initiative by the European Climate Foundation (ECF). Reaching this EU target is only possible with a nearly zero-carbon power supply, according to researchers.

Dries Acke, the ECF’s spokesman, told the 2011 Irish Renewable Energy Summit that ‘Roadmap 2050’ examines three scenarios to decarbonise the European power sector.

By using 40 per cent, 60 per cent or 80 per cent renewable energy sources, “the future cost of electricity is comparable to the future cost of electricity under the current carbon-intensive infrastructure”, ‘Roadmap 2050’ found.

“The scenarios are dependent on the percentage of renewable integration in 2050. This is very methodological,” he told eolas.

Acke added: “Forty per cent, 60 per cent or 80 per cent of energy would come from renewable and the rest of the percentage of the supply [would come] from an equal split between carbon capture and storage of gas and coal and nuclear, which we still have to some extent in Europe.”

The “back of the envelope scenario” is 100 per cent renewables. Acke remarked that “of the results that we got, we were so positively surprised at the balancing opportunities and the technical feasibility of this integration that we decided to go a step further. At a bit of a higher cost, but not categorically impossible, [‘Roadmap 2050’] can also manage the 100 per cent renewable.”

The pathways do not depend on future technology breakthroughs or on electricity imported from neighbouring regions, Acke told delegates. They are based on technologies that are already commercially available, or in late-stage development. “Breakthroughs in technology will only improve the cost or feasibility of the pathways.” In addition, the researchers did not assume any change in societal behaviour or energy consumption.

Ultimately, Acke stated: “it is all a matter of the optimal use of the natural occurrence of renewables within the regions in Europe. This has major benefits for matching the demand fluctuations over the years. Due to that optimal usage of [renewable] energy sources, all three pathways match the power demand at all times of the year.”

Interconnection

‘Roadmap 2050’ researchers produced a detailed European grid system which was based on weather forecasting over an average year. Acke explained that this illustrates the importance of electricity integration.

“The response to questions such as supply, demand and volatility is interconnection,” he told eolas.

“With higher levels of renewables you will have less stable, traditional output so you can easily flatten that out by interconnecting the bigger geographical space.”

Acke added that integration would reduce costs in terms of the amount of storage and back-up capacity needed.

“If you interconnect, one capacity backs up the other one and instead of needing to have expensive back-up systems, you just ship your electricity from somewhere else.”

Acke continued: “If you invest in renewables, at the moment the grid gives a limitation to the output to these elements. It’s less predictable when the wind will blow or the sun will shine. But if you interconnect the entire continent, you can be reasonably sure that somewhere the sun will shine and the wind will blow. For an investor, it gives them the guarantee of selling his product.”

Action before 2015 is a “prerequisite” for decarbonisation by 2050, Acke told delegates. Policy development and implementation will need to focus on:

• energy efficiency, creating cost savings and reducing demand;

• investing in regional grid interconnection, minimising back-up supply and load-balancing requirements, plus a broad programme of smart grid pilot projects anticipating rapid expansion;

• continued and accelerated technology development;

• market reform to ensure an effective long-term investment case for business; and

• laying the foundation for rapid fuel switch to electricity in buildings and transport sectors.

Response

When asked how ‘Roadmap 2050’ had been received throughout Europe, Acke said he has encountered divided opinions.

“In peripheral states like Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Denmark and Sweden, they really see it as a market economic opportunity of generating electricity, interconnecting and selling it to the rest of Europe,” he told eolas. In those countries, the ECF received a positive response because the plan would “favour their economic transition.”

“In central states such as France, Germany and Belgium, there was some caution about technical possibilities and making sure that the whole grid infrastructure can be managed and the effect that will have on prices and volatility,” Acke added.

“Their position is they will be the place where everything is dispatched,” he noted.

In central and eastern Europe, Acke revealed that “if you started your discussion with ‘we need to reduce greenhouse gases’ they just shut down.”

He explained that ‘Roadmap 2050’ had to be sold as “energy security” because Brussels wants to “share power among European friends” rather than having a scenario where power is owned by “your ‘big brother’ on the east side, where there is scepticism about renewable[s] as a technology.”

Acke notes that in Poland in particular, there is “big potential” in biomass, but much less in terms of wind and sun.

He concluded that “Ireland is a country where thoughts have been developed” and urged delegates to bring those thoughts to Brussels.